Handicapping Josh Hamilton’s Triple Crown Chances

Texas Rangers Josh Hamilton Has Battled Through diversity & Personal Demons To Chase His Dreams In Professional Baseball

Dan Szymborski has a column up today assessing Josh Hamilton’s triple crown chances.

While normally the type of stuff I’d expect to see on Bleacher Report, as Dan notes, Hamilton winning the triple crown is more likely than any other player in the game today.

He ran 100,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, taking Hamilton’s historic norms and projections for this season going forward, and …

After all the numbers are crunched, Hamilton remains essentially a coin-flip to lead the league in each of the Triple Crown categories … In the 100,000 seasons played, Hamilton won the Triple Crown 16.1 percent of the time, terrific odds for such a difficult feat.

Color me skeptical but I don’t see it being anywhere near that close.

There is a reason why it hasn’t happened since 1967 ya know. It’s kinda damn hard.

In fact, the hardest part about the crown is the RBI count, usually because the guys who have a combined high AVG with a ton of HRs are patient hitters who don’t expand the zone & are willing to take a walk.

Over the course of a season that leaves a lot of ducks on the pond for other guys to collect RBIs behind you.

The fact Hamilton is so aggressive & so willing to go out of the zone chasing hits makes him uniquely qualified to get those RBIs some triple crown candidates never would, but that type of behavior also tends to severely diminish your shot at a batting title.

Now on the flip side, add in the fact that he’s on a team with a ton of guys getting on base in front of him, one that turns the lineup over more than most teams (getting him more ABs) and it enhances his chances on the RBI count but it’s really hard to quantify just how much.

A huge possible stumbling point is the fact that in order to qualify for the batting title he will have to play in just about 140 games.

Over his 5 years in the major leagues he has played in over 133 games only once (2008) and in fact over a 100 games just one other year (2011).

Sadly, he ravaged his body with some hardcore stuff over the years & now both his immune system and ability to heal quickly has been shot to utter shit at an early age meaning this study is nothing more than an exercise in “if he stays healthy I think the odds are with him” speculation.

But that is one mighty big freakin’ ” IF”. A much bigger one than the 100,000 simulations would seem to indicate.

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2 comments

    • djpostl

      I’d definitely say if anyone in the game today is the one to finally do it, it is him. In the end, it’s going to be his inability to stay healthy that does him in.

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